House Price Change - Where's Hot & Where's Not (England & Wales, Feb 15) | Forum

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Graham Dewhirst Feb 23 '15

Whether you're someone who's entering the property market for the 1st time or someone who's bought and sold property as an investment many times before, people who own or are thinking of owning property are naturally interested in the changes in property price/value over time.  Understanding fluctuations in property price trends can help you with those fundamental decisions such as when and where to buy and sell.  


Based on property sales transactions taking place up to and including December 2014, this analysis, by LocationCounts show’s current trends in house price change in England & Wales (by County) both in the short/medium and longer terms.  The full original article, including data tables, can be found here. 


For a more regional analysis see the LocationCounts site via the links below:

East Midlands

East of England

London

North East

North West

South East

South West

Wales

West Midlands

Yorkshire & Humber


To see information at a granular level for where you live or a location where you're considering buying property then visit the LocationCounts  home page and enter a postcode or location name.


Estimated Average House Prices (*)
  • Highest estimated house prices in London & the South East
  • North Yorkshire & Cheshire buck the North/South divide with estimated average prices exceeding £200,000.

NOTE: care should be taken when comparing estimated average prices between areas of the country as the make-up of properties differ considerably. Take, for example,Northumberland and Tyne & Wear. The estimated average price in Northumberland is approximately £40,000 more than in Tyne & Wear. However, 30% of properties in Northumberland are detached while only 12% of properties in Tyne & Wear are detached. In fact, the estimated average prices for Terraced properties in Tyne & Wear exceeds that for terraced properties in Northumberland.




Short/Medium Term Price Change (12 Months) (**)

  • All areas of England & Wales showing some degree of growth
  • Many areas of London & the South East showing double digit growth
  • Lowest areas of growth generally in the North West





Longer Term Price Change (5 Years) (**)

  • As with the shorter term view, the longer term view shows greater growth in the South East. However, this is to an even greater extent.
  • Some areas show only minimal growth over the last 5 years. Combining the longer term view with the shorter term view, it’s clear that some areas of the country were showing negative growth in the 4 years up to December 2013 and it is only growth in the past 12 months that has turned the entire 5 year view into a positive picture.


Short/Medium Term v. Longer Term View

LocationCounts ranks (***) areas across the country in a range of 1 to 100 (1 being the greatest % change, 100 being the lowest % change). The rank of each area allows us to compare locations against each other. By comparing the difference in rank over the Last 5 Years to the rank in the Last 12 Months we can start to see those areas where house price increase has picked up in the past 12 months compared to the previous 5 years as a whole. This analysis shows that the North East & South West of England along with North Wales are starting to see the biggest shift in prices compared to what has happened previously in those areas. NOTE: a negative change in rank does NOT mean that house prices have decreased, it merely indicates that growth in the past 12 months has not been as great as may have been predicted based on the previous 4 year period and how well other areas of the country have grown.




Where's Lagging Behind The Peak

House prices in some areas of England & Wales are now the highest they’ve ever been. However, many areas are behind a peak they’ve previously reached. This map shows those areas where prices are below their peak. Interesting, much of the West of the country are still behind a peak reached in 2007 while much of the South & East of the country are behind a peak reached more recently. This could indicate that prices in some areas of the country are starting to decline though the seasonality of the housing market could also be a factor.




About The Data and Methodology

Source data for house price transactions is obtained from the Land Registry and is licenced under the Open Government Licence V2.0. All data displayed in the above table has been calculated using algorithms designed by LocationCounts © 2014 - 2015 . Data up to and including December 2014.

* The Estimated Average Price for each area (e.g. Civil Parish, Local Government District, County) is based on the average for all Postcodes contained within that area. The Estimated Average Price for each Postcode is based on the closest sales to that Postcode weighted by the proximity to the Postcode itself.

** The Price Change for each area e.g. Civil Parish, Local Government District, County) is based on the average price change for all Postcodes contained within that area. The average price change for each Postcode is based on the closest sales each month to that Postcode weighted by the proximity to the Postcode itself.

*** LocationCounts Ranks are a mechanism that allows us to compare locations across the country with one another (see our help/tutorial pages for more information). All areas which are a self-contained boundary are ranked against each other; these include Counties, Local Government Districts and various Postcode Code groupings.


The Forum post is edited by Graham Dewhirst Feb 23 '15
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